Shaiyhar’s path to this weekend’s Ballarat Cup remains uncertain, with the imported gelding facing a crucial recovery window following a minor but ill-timed setback during a Cranbourne track gallop. The Irish-bred runner, trained by the respected duo Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young, is being monitored closely throughout the week, as the stable weighs up whether he will be fit enough to take his place in the Listed Ballarat Cup (2000m) on Saturday.
A stone bruise—one of the more frustrating and unpredictable ailments in racing—forced the stable to ease off the gelding late last week. While not a serious injury, it is often enough to disrupt a horse’s work at the wrong moment, especially when preparing for a feature race. Despite the hiccup, Young maintains optimism that Shaiyhar is trending in the right direction and could still be passed fit to run.
“He was good when he ran third in the Listed race at Flemington,” Young said.
“But he had a little bit of a stone bruise last week that was causing a bit of a concern.
“He galloped up good on Saturday and pulled-up nice and sound. We gave him a little more work on Tuesday, and we’ll see how he is before making a final decision.
“He loves 2000 metres, which is a little bit further than last start and hopefully Ballarat is not a wash out like it has been in previous years.
“He doesn’t like it too wet and hopefully the weather gods are in his favour.”
Shaiyhar’s initial nomination puts him among 29 contenders for the Ballarat Cup, with final acceptances to be confirmed on Wednesday morning. While the field is stacked with capable rivals, Shaiyhar’s own formline presents a compelling case—if he is healthy enough to take part.
A Horse of Promise Still Seeking His Breakthrough Moment
Since arriving from France in 2023, Shaiyhar has shown flashes of the talent that made him a sought-after import. From the outset, he impressed his new stable, adapting to Australian conditions and immediately demonstrating that he possessed a strong turn of foot and stamina base suited to middle-distance racing.
However, Busuttin and Young have been open about one lingering reality: the gelding has yet to fully tap into the level they believe he is capable of reaching. Consistency has been the missing ingredient, even though his efforts have rarely been poor.
Shaiyhar’s biggest highlight came earlier this year when he defeated Deakin over 2000m at Flemington, a win that suggested he was ready to launch into higher-quality company. Since then, he has been competitive without winning, recording four placings in his past eight runs, often finishing behind emerging or established stakes-level performers.
His most recent outing—third behind Kingswood and Saint George in the Listed Cup Day Plate (1800m) on Melbourne Cup Day—confirmed he remains in the mix among horses at this grade. Both of those rivals are also expected to line up at Ballarat, which gives form analysts a reliable benchmark heading into the weekend.
Distance and Track Conditions Will Be Key Factors
If Shaiyhar does line up, the conditions will play a significant role in shaping his chances. The Ballarat track was rated a Heavy 8 when nominations closed on Monday, a rating far from ideal for the Busuttin-Young stayer.
Shaiyhar has shown a clear preference for firmer footing, making the weather forecast a central part of the team’s planning. Fortunately for the stable, the days leading up to the race are expected to bring some relief. With fine conditions predicted for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday—alongside temperatures rising between 25 and 30 degrees—the track should have enough opportunity to dry out.
That said, Saturday’s race day forecast includes possible showers and a notably cooler top of 19 degrees, adding an extra layer of uncertainty.
Young has highlighted Shaiyhar’s fondness for the 2000m distance, a trip that aligns perfectly with the Ballarat Cup journey. His Flemington win at the same distance earlier this year, coupled with his strong late work last start over 1800m, suggests he would relish the added ground—provided the surface remains manageable.
A Waiting Game for the Stable and Punters
For punters eyeing the Ballarat Cup, Shaiyhar’s participation is likely to influence the early betting landscape. His pattern of running honest races and handling himself well at Listed level ensures he would attract support—particularly from those anticipating peak performance as he continues to mature in Australia.
But everything hinges on his mid-week assessments. The stable will complete another soundness check before final acceptances, and his Tuesday work has offered promising signs. While the stone bruise appears to have settled, the team will not risk the gelding unless he pulls up 100% sound.
For Busuttin and Young, the decision is a balancing act between opportunity and caution. Running in a Listed Cup would be a valuable stepping stone to stronger summer and autumn targets, yet the welfare of the horse remains paramount.
As the countdown continues, Shaiyhar remains one of the most intriguing storylines heading into the Ballarat Cup—an imported stayer with potential still untapped, a loyal training team hoping the weather holds, and a fitness cloud that will not clear until the final hours.
